By Henok Tadele Haile – The Red Sea serves as a vital bond between three of the world's most important continents – Africa, Asia, and Europe. Out of the nearly 8 billion people inhabiting the planet, around 7 billion reside in these three interconnected lands.
Situated in a strategically invaluable region, the Red Sea harbors several pivotal chokepoints like the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab Strait. Disruptions to these narrow channels can severely impact global shipping networks. The Red Sea facilitates critical trade flows between Asia and Europe, underpinning the economies of bordering nations.
The Red Sea route reigns as the shortest maritime pathway linking Asia and Europe. Approximately 10% of total seaborne trade worldwide passes through these waters annually. The Red Sea also enables the transit of around 5% of globally traded oil each year, primarily from the Middle East to Asian and European markets.
In 2021 alone, the bustling Suez Canal handled over 1.2 billion tons of cargo, cementing its status as one of the busiest shipping arteries globally. As exchange between Asian and European partners continues to expand, the Red Sea will remain an essential conduit facilitating the flows of global commerce. Its strategic value and relevance in an increasingly interconnected world continues to
elevate over time.
For several millennia, Ethiopia has always been part of the Red Sea region until Eritrea detached from Ethiopia in 1991. Its culture, religion, history and politics have been seriously intertwined with this region. After Eritrea separated in 1991, Ethiopia became the biggest landlocked country in
the world by population. It is also the second most populous landlocked country in the world by area, after Kazakhstan.
Ethiopia in the aftermath of landlocked status
Over the past decade, Ethiopia has enjoyed impressive economic development, consistently achieving around 10% GDP growth annually. This robust expansion has enabled significant poverty reduction, with the poverty rate plunging from 55% in 2000 to just 29% by 2015. The World Bank has rightfully recognized Ethiopia as a top performer in poverty alleviation.
Building on this momentum, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has unveiled an ambitious Homegrown Economic Reform agenda to transform Ethiopia into a prosperous, inclusive nation by 2030. This visionary plan aims to transition the economy from a largely agrarian, low-income model to an industrialized, lower-
middle-income powerhouse.
Sound fiscal and monetary policies, disciplined debt management, and controlled inflation will foster macroeconomic stability. Undergirding the plan is a spirit of self-reliance and a belief that, through its own efforts, Ethiopia can realize its lofty goals of doubling GDP, creating 10 million jobs, halving poverty rates, becoming a major manufacturing exporter, and cultivating a diverse economic base by 2030.
However, Ethiopia's landlocked geography poses significant challenges like high transportation costs, over-reliance on neighbors' infrastructure, and vulnerability to regional instability and above all security interests as it status diminished its geopolitical clout.
For developing landlocked countries, the lack of direct sea access imposes immense burdens on trade competitiveness and economic progress. According to UN research, landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) face logistics costs up to 50% higher than coastal nations. For some African LLDCs, transport can consume 20% of import value.
These exorbitant costs stem from unpredictable transit routes through neighbors, exacerbated by poor governance and corruption. With 32 LLDCs globally, 17 also being least developed countries, such high trade costs critically hinder growth opportunities. On average, LLDC development lags 20% behind nations with sea access, as geographic constraints limit engagement in global commerce.
By paying double in transport yet facing restricted trade, LLDCs see constrained socioeconomic progress. Tackling transit and logistics obstacles will be imperative for these vulnerable nations.
Gaining lawful access to ports is an urgent necessity for landlocked developing countries to reduce costs, expand trade, and unlock their growth potential. With vision and cooperation, solutions to the challenges of being landlocked can open new horizons for some of the world’s poorest economies, the UN study suggested.
PM Abiy’s Plead to Parliament
In an impassioned speech to parliament, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed underscored the existential importance of Ethiopia securing access to the Red Sea. He contended that its burgeoning population and landlocked location make maritime trade routes critical for realizing the nation's potential.
The Prime Minister outlined potential pathways for attaining sea access, including confederation with Eritrea and acquiring port rights in the region. He emphasized Ethiopia’s willingness to cooperate with regional partners to achieve this vital goal.
PM Abiy concluded that maritime access is non-negotiable for Ethiopia’s future. With over 120 million citizens, a growing economy, and no coastal borders, securing lawful trade routes to the sea remains imperative. By continuing to champion this cause, Ethiopia can boost its trade competitiveness, accelerate development, and unlock the promise of its people and resources.
The Prime Minister's impassioned case reminds us that Ethiopia's prosperity hinges on undeterred access to global markets. With strategic cooperation amongst neighbors, this age-old quest may finally be realized, ushering in a new era of African advancement.
Access to the sea would provide Ethiopia greater geopolitical influence. As a landlocked country surrounded by unstable neighbors, maritime routes would allow Ethiopia to more effectively project power and advance its interests.
With ambitions to become Africa's manufacturing hub, it would be shortsighted for Ethiopia to rely solely on Djibouti’s ports given its vast population and economic goals. Rather than depend on Djibouti as a sole outlet, Ethiopia could unlock its potential with direct access to seaports. This would reduce transportation costs, boost exports, and support the growth of related industries.
Securing sovereign access to the Red Sea and Indian Ocean will be key for Ethiopia to harness its resources, attract investment, integrate into global markets, and provide opportunities for its people. With over 120 million citizens, realizing the dream of unhindered trade routes remains vital for national development.
Can International Law Supports Ethiopia’s port ambition?
The international law of the sea establishes principles and mechanisms to ensure landlocked countries can access the sea and integrate into the global maritime system. Landlocked countries have a right to access coastal states' territory and infrastructure to reach the sea. Coastal states must provide unimpeded corridors without unjustified restrictions.
Transit corridors -. Coastal states must cooperate in establishing and maintaining this infrastructure. Landlocked countries should receive preferential treatment regarding customs duties and charges on goods in transit, considering their lack of direct sea access.
UNCLOS elaborates landlocked countries' rights, including to participate in exploiting coastal states' offshore resources and negotiate transit transport agreements governing customs, infrastructure, and dispute resolution.
By upholding these international law principles and mechanisms, landlocked countries can overcome geographic barriers, benefit from maritime trade, and develop their economies. Access to the sea provides opportunities as well as obligations under the law of the sea.
Therefore ,Ethiopia has reasonable grounds to seek equitable access to the Red Sea based on international law, history, culture, strategy, and development interests.
How the International Community Benefit from Ethiopia’s Access to Sea?
Ethiopia’s access to the sea would promote the interests of both Western nations and BRICS countries. For the West, maritime access would reinforce Ethiopia’s role as a vital security partner in fighting terrorism and fostering regional stability. It would also accelerate economic growth, attract foreign investment, and enhance Ethiopia’s potential as a low-cost manufacturing hub. As China becomes more expensive, Ethiopia is well-positioned to become a major low-cost manufacturing hub.
This could be of significant benefit to Western companies looking to reduce their production costs. Additionally, Ethiopia’s membership in BRICS could help to attract investment from other BRICS countries.
BRICS nations would benefit from increased trade and investment opportunities with a rapidly growing African market. Port construction and infrastructure projects present lucrative prospects. Enhanced regional connectivity would facilitate smoother trade flows and energy security. Geopolitically, Ethiopia's amplified significance could allow BRICS to wield greater influence in African affairs and collaborate more closely on issues like peacekeeping, climate change and development.
In summary, Ethiopia’s sovereign access to the sea would stabilize, integrate and develop the Horn of Africa region. The country’s massive growth potential and strategic location could be fully realized. Both Western and emerging powers have much to gain through reinforced economic ties and political cooperation with a revitalized Ethiopian nation connected to global maritime trade networks.