By Andualem Sisay Gessesse – It has been days since millions of Kenyans have begun nationwide protests opposing the tax increment plan by the government.
The major cause of the grievance is the increasing cost of living, mainly food and energy costs, which is similar to the neighboring Ethiopia. Coupled with the ongoing war in the Amhara region and insecurity in many parts of Oromia, as well as the plan of the government to increase electricity fees and the introduction of the controversial draft regulation related to tracking individuals’ ten years wealth, might lead Ethiopians to emulate Kenyans and protest against the government, according to external observers.
Experiencing more or less similar economic hardships, one may wonder why the people of Ethiopia are not protesting as the people in the neighborhood. Well as an internal observer, the culture and governance style of Ethiopia is somehow different as compared to the somehow democrat neighbor Kenya or Sudanese whose protests against bread price hikes led to the overthrow of President Al Bashir a few years ago.
For internal observers, Ethiopians are the most patient and respectful of their leaders compared to most of the people in the neighboring countries. This is often attributed to the cruelty of their leaders and the kind of ‘I only know what you need’ authoritative administration style they have experienced for centuries.
For instance, when we look at the way the police force in Kenya is handling the protest, it is not something one expects in Ethiopia. The security forces in Kenya have been handling the situation professionally more or less to reduce the number of causalities.
Had there been such professional treatment of opposition or protests in Ethiopia today, people in the capital could have turned the long lines of public transport users waiting for transportation into peaceful protests. Or we wouldn’t have heard the news about the arrests of critical politicians including the members of parliament.
Hence, as an internal observer, it is very unlikely that the protests in Kenya will be transmitted to Ethiopia. Meanwhile, it is also good for the administration not to forget that the politics in Ethiopia is unpredictable.
The fact is in Ethiopia, nobody knows what will happen and when. We don’t know for sure that triggering point and when the people run out of their patience. When the frustrations of the people reach it’s tipping point most of the time the result is deadly war and arms struggle. That is why the leaders of the country are often advised to know their limits and wisely govern the unpredictable silent majority.
With displaced of millions of people following the war in Tigray Region and the economic hardship the survivors are facing along with the migration of hundreds of thousands to the capital Addis Ababa as a result of insecurity, and thousands in jail relating to on-going war in Amhara and conflict in Oromia, one cannot be certain whether the millions of inhabitants in the capital are frustrated or not as a result of the increasing cost of living.
One can not also ignore the ongoing pressure on the existing businesses by tax authorities to compensate the tax losses in Amhara and Tigray regions, as an additional cause of frustrations in Ethiopia. Nowadays, especially after the Tigray war, it has been common for most business owners in Ethiopia to buy assets abroad in places like Dubai, Turkey, United States of America in preparation for the worst and to support the arms struggles they believe in and resistance movements against the regime.
Based on that as external observer, one may list the following potential implications of the protests in Kenya to the neighboring Ethiopia:
o Economic Strain: Protests in Kenya is due to economic factors. If these factors are similar to those in Ethiopia (e.g., high cost of living), they could trigger protests there as well.
o Political Unrest: Political instability in Kenya could inspire similar movements in Ethiopia, especially if there are underlying grievances about governance.
o Regional Security: Widespread unrest in Kenya could impact regional security, potentially affecting Ethiopia, especially if the protests turn violent.