BY YANET YANTAYE WOGAYEHU – On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, marking his return to the White House after a four-year hiatus. Shortly after Trump’s inauguration, the Senate confirmed Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State with a bipartisan vote of 99-0.
Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida since 2011, now assumes the role of America’s top diplomat, signaling a new strategic direction for U.S. foreign policy under Trump’s renewed leadership. Rubio has been vocal about protecting human and democratic rights globally, including specifically urging the Ethiopian government to respect freedom of expression and release jailed journalists.
His track record suggests Washington may pressure Ethiopia to address its narrowing democratic space. Rubio’s leadership could also have significant implications, particularly in regional stability.
Trump’s Foreign Policy: “America First” Returns
Pundits expect the Trump administration’s foreign policy to reflect the “America First” doctrine, emphasizing transactional diplomacy, security partnerships, and economic interests over traditional commitments to democracy and human rights. For Ethiopia, the administration may balance its strategic objectives with Rubio’s advocacy for democratic ideals, as U.S. diplomacy under his leadership navigates the Horn of Africa’s complex geopolitical and Ethiopia’s domestic landscape.
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
The GERD, a monumental infrastructure hydropower project on the Abay River, which is vital to Ethiopia’s economic development, has been a longstanding source of contention with downstream nations Egypt and Sudan. During Trump’s first term, the U.S. Treasury Department mediated negotiations over the dam but was accused of favoring Egypt. Trump’s controversial remark in October 2020 that Egypt might “blow up the dam” exacerbated tensions and strained U.S.-Ethiopia relations.
Under Rubio's leadership, U.S. involvement in the GERD dispute may persist, but Ethiopia is likely to approach such engagement with caution. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has previously criticized Trump’s administration for its perceived bias, asserting Ethiopia’s sovereign right to develop its resources.
A second Trump administration might prioritize the personal relationship Trump has with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and security cooperation, potentially favoring Egypt, a key U.S. ally in the region. This dynamic could complicate Ethiopia’s diplomatic efforts to secure equitable use of Abay/Nile waters.
Regional Stability and Security Cooperation
Ethiopia’s strategic position in the Horn of Africa makes it a critical player in regional stability. The U.S. has long partnered with Ethiopia on counterterrorism initiatives, particularly in combating the al-Shabaab terror group in Somalia. Trump’s foreign policy is expected to prioritize security cooperation, focusing on Ethiopia’s role as a key ally in the fight against terrorism.
Foreign Aid and Development Assistance
During his first term, Trump’s administration implemented significant cuts to foreign aid, aligning with his “America First” agenda. Ethiopia, one of the largest recipients of U.S. aid in Africa, relies heavily on foreign assistance for health, education, and infrastructure projects. The reinstatement of the “global gag rule” during Trump’s initial tenure disrupted health services in Ethiopia, particularly in maternal health and family planning.
A renewed focus on economic interests could lead to further reductions in aid, compelling Ethiopia to seek alternative funding sources and diversify its international partnerships. While the outgoing Biden administration prioritized developmental aid and humanitarian assistance, Trump’s administration may view aid primarily through the lens of strategic interests, linking assistance to security and economic cooperation.
Ethiopia’s Domestic Challenges
Ethiopia faces a host of domestic challenges, from post-conflict recovery in the Tigray region to ongoing ethnic tensions and political transitions. The Tigray conflict, which erupted in 2020 and concluded through U.S.-led mediation in 2022, highlighted the critical role of U.S. engagement in resolving Ethiopia’s internal crises.
Under Trump, U.S. engagement in Ethiopia’s internal affairs might diminish, as the administration prioritizes strategic alliances and security cooperation over humanitarian concerns. This could leave Ethiopian civil society advocates with reduced international support for promoting governance, human rights, and democratic reforms.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s outspoken criticism of Trump during his first term could also complicate U.S.-Ethiopia relations. In a 2022 interview, Abiy described Trump’s foreign policy as “damaging to America’s image” and criticized the entertainment-driven nature of U.S. politics. While these remarks were made after Trump left office, they could resurface as a point of contention in future interactions.
Diplomatic Leadership and Rubio’s Role
As Secretary of State, Marco Rubio will play a pivotal role in shaping U.S. foreign policy toward Ethiopia and the broader Horn of Africa. Known for his advocacy of human rights and strong U.S. engagement abroad, Rubio’s leadership could provide a counterbalance to Trump’s transactional approach. However, his ability to influence Trump’s foreign policy priorities remains uncertain.
Rubio’s confirmation signals bipartisan support for a strong U.S. presence on the global stage, but it also reflects a shift toward prioritizing strategic interests. For Ethiopia, this could mean a focus on counterterrorism and security partnerships, with less emphasis on democracy and human rights.
This emphasis on security might come at the expense of addressing governance issues and human rights concerns. Ethiopia’s domestic challenges, including political transitions and conflicts in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara, could receive less attention under a Trump administration. This could embolden the Ethiopian government to adopt more hardline approaches to internal dissent, with reduced pressure from the U.S. to pursue democratic reforms.
Rubio’s past remarks, however, offer some hope for activists. He has previously met with Ethiopian dissidents, such as Eskinder Nega, and issued statements condemning the government’s imprisonment of journalists and activists.
These actions suggest Rubio has closely followed developments in Ethiopia and views such issues as critical to U.S. policy. This implies that Prime Minister Abiy may face renewed scrutiny, particularly if Ethiopia seeks to return to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), secure bilateral economic support, or obtain loans from the IMF and World Bank.
Looking Ahead: Ethiopia’s Strategic Options
As Ethiopia prepares for the implications of Trump’s return to power, the government must adopt a proactive approach to safeguard its national interests. Diversifying international partnerships, strengthening regional alliances, and prioritizing self-reliance will be critical strategies for navigating the challenges of U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration.
Prime Minister Abiy could also benefit from taking steps to stabilize the country internally, including negotiating with armed groups in Oromia and Amhara, before the threat of sanctions or foreign-based mediation forces his hand.
Ethiopia’s engagement with other global powers, such as China and Russia, could also play a crucial role in mitigating potential shortfalls in U.S. support. China’s investments in Ethiopia’s infrastructure and Russia’s growing influence in Africa provide alternative avenues for collaboration, reducing Ethiopia’s dependence on U.S. aid and diplomacy. However, Rubio, a reported China hawk, may not view Ethiopia’s ties with China and Russia favorably.